KIEV, Nov. 1 – Ukraine's forex reserves will continue narrowing, while the hryvnia will devaluate to UAH 9.50/$1 in 2014, Standard & Poor's said.
"In our view, the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia has become more likely. The potential magnitude of this has also increased in light of the government's defense of the exchange rate through the depletion of foreign currency reserves, while we estimate the economy will contract in 2013. We assume a managed devaluation of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar in 2014 to 9.50, from an estimated 8.20 in 2013," S&P said.
S&P said that under its base case, S&P does not expect Ukraine to commit to broad-based reforms: this makes an agreement on a multi-lateral external financing program unlikely.
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