KYIV, May 18 – The fall of the Ukrainian economy by one third is an optimistic scenario, and its rapid recovery in 2023 is possible with the end of hostilities and large-scale support from partners, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhiy Nikolaychuk has said.
Under our most optimistic scenario, the economy could fall by one third. But there could be worse scenarios," he said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Commenting at the request of Interfax-Ukraine on the forecast of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), according to which Ukraine's GDP after a 30% decline in the next will increase by 25%, Nikolaychuk agreed that such a scenario is possible if a number of assumptions are met.
One of them, of course, is the end of hostilities. The second is the continuation of large-scale support for Ukraine from international partners. Under such conditions, such a rapid recovery can really be realized," the deputy governor of the National Bank said.
According to him, the NBU has a baseline forecast for this year, which was published only in an abridged version after the April meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, and there is no forecast for 2023 yet. (om/ez)