KYIV, Jan 23 – There is no scenario in which Russian President Vladimir Putin will leave Ukraine alone, as he has no interest in a successful and independent Ukrainian state, while expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump can resolve the war are misplaced, Timothy Ash, senior strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management, said.

“The future for Ukraine looks bleak at this point in time – a choice between a bad, and ultimately unsustainable peace, or an extended war,” Ash wrote in a blog post following the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Ash said Putin will continue trying to deceive Ukraine unless he is decisively defeated or the cost of Russia’s aggression becomes so high that it forces the Kremlin to back down. At the same time, he argued that Trump has shown neither a clear understanding of Putin nor a willingness to seriously pressure him.

According to Ash, the mood at Davos contrasted sharply with last year, when many participants believed Trump could deliver peace using his leverage over Putin. “This year the mood was downbeat,” he said, noting that Trump’s repeated promises to end the war quickly proved unattainable.

He added that Ukraine continues to endure intense Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, damaging heating and water systems during a harsh winter while air defense resources remain limited.

Commenting on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at the WEF after his meeting with Trump, Ash described it as tough but diplomatic, reflecting frustration with both weak European resolve and Trump’s reluctance to force Putin into negotiations. He said Zelenskyy must remain diplomatic with Trump because Ukraine remains heavily dependent on U.S. ammunition to defend its skies.

Ash also noted that expectations of signing a major $800 billion peacetime investment program this week did not materialize, while a separate security agreement with the United States, though coordinated, has yet to be signed and may fall short of Ukraine’s expectations. Still, he said Kyiv cannot afford to reject it without risking vital military supplies. (om/ez)