KYIV, July 2 – The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), edged down 0.8 points in June to 50.0 but remained 6.4 points above its level a year earlier (43.6), the central bank reported.

The NBU said that stable consumer demand, energy supplies, seasonal factors, and international aid supported sentiment, while intensified attacks on infrastructure, rising business costs, labor shortages, and inflation expectations constrained it.

The trade sector recorded the highest business activity at 52.0 points – up 1.7 points from May and 5.6 points above June 2024. Trade businesses continued to expect growth in turnover and goods volumes, though they also forecast faster price growth for resale goods.

In industry, the index declined for the second month, dropping 0.7 points to 50.4. Respondents anticipated faster price increases for raw materials and their own products, with weaker workforce assessments (48.1 points).

Construction confidence slipped to 50.4 points from 51.5 in May. Companies projected slower growth in service procurement and contractor availability. The employment outlook dropped to 45.7, reversing three months of optimism.

The services sector had the weakest outlook, with business activity falling 2.6 points to 48.3. Companies cited higher fuel costs and skilled labor shortages. Expectations for new orders and service volumes also declined.

Trade firms indicated plans to reduce inventories (BEI at 55.6) and expected continued margin pressure (39.2). The volume of services provided was projected to remain unchanged (BEI at 50.0), while employment expectations held steady at 48.3.

The NBU conducted the survey from June 4 to 23, 2025, polling 579 enterprises: 42% from industry, 26.3% from trade, 25.7% from services, and 6% from construction. Small businesses made up 45.9% of respondents.

Regarding foreign trade, 31.1% of companies engaged in both exports and imports, 9.3% in exports only, 18% in imports only, and 41.6% had no foreign operations. (om/ez)